It has been two years of back and forth in Ukraine. Ukraine has lost and won this war many times. One thing is sure, no prediction of this war is correct because at battle is the will to survive and the will to dominate at all costs.
One thing is clear, both sides cannot win this war without allies. As of today, Russia is growing stronger by the day in terms of its allies, and as a result, on the frontline.
It is clear that Russia has allies in Syria, North Korea, Iran and China. However, none of those allies have given so much to Russia on the frontline like Mike Johnson in US Congress and General Syrksky in Ukraine.
Mike Johnson has successfully prevented aid going to Ukraine for nearly a year. One lying excuse after another bought him time even when 2/3rds of Americans support help to Ukraine. He refused to fund Ukraine and Issrael in one package. He used the excuse of border security for months, and when Democrats gave him everything he wanted, he broke the deal. The two have no connection and was clearly a ruse to refuse Ukraine aid. He sent Congress out on vacation. His actions directly contributing to Ukraine’s inability to keep Russia at bay, contributing to thousands of Ukrainian deaths on the frontline and in the cities. Mike Johnson all but secured an easy win for Putin who could use win of Avdiivka in his election.
The second greatest ally is surprising as he is the top General in Ukrainian army. He took the position from Zaluzhniy who was taken out due to a dispute with Zelensky. This may have been Russia’s greatest victory, creating a rift within the Ukrainian command costing Ukraine their best General and installing a pro-Russian general.
Syrsky was in charge of the disastrous Bachmut campaign. Where desire to not award Bachmut to Russia erased the city along with some of the best Ukrainian divisions. He was also responsible for the disastrous retreat in 2014 when Ukraine lost hundreds of soldiers as they retreatted from Donbas. In a repeat Syrsky was fast to lose the city of Avdiivka, refused to do an orderly retreat costing hundreds of deaths. It is no accident that in the last weeks of Avdiivka Russia suddenly became very adapt at finding Ukrainina command and control centers, became good at communication and launching surprise attacks. It is amazing how Zaluzhniy was never surprised the way Syrsky seems to be.
For two years Ukraine did not lose a single Hymers, barely lost any western tanks and not a single Patriot launchers. In the past few weeks Ukraine lost impossible to replace personell as well as Patriot launchers, radars, tanks and Hymers. All of them dozens of miles from frontline.
It appears that Zelensky trusted a rat a third time and at this point, it is not excusable. He allowed Putin to use the media and propaganda to undermine his trust in his best general and promoted his worst general at a time when the world looks to Ukraine to hold on.
This is Ukraine’s darkest hour. If it survives it wins, if it doesn’t it loses.
This war is not predictable. It is a five dimensional chess game that presently, Putin is winning. Everything depends on the West to refuse to let Putin win in Ukraine, a win that will allow him to also take Baltic states, Moldova and any other country he wants, just as the win over Ukraine in 1922 followed with Stalin’s wins in Central Asia and Eastsern Europe.
We are fighting a world war. This war will end with Ukraine if Ukraine wins or expand if Ukraine loses. The sooner we realize that Putin isn’t fighting alone but realize who is in his army, including Johnson and Syrsky, the better and faster we can help Ukraine and defeat Putin.
