There is one thing to know about Putin: he doesn’t lose. There is one thing to know about Russia: they are never well prepared, but they are always glad to lose many more people than their opponent.
Ukraine survived five days. It was expected that they would survive a lot less. It is now believed that Russia, with their destroyed economy, with their slowed down initial force, that they will pack up and leave.
Anyone who thinks that doesn’t understand two things: Putin doesn’t lose and Putin is happy to take and inflict massive casualties.
Five days into this war, Russians are starting to show that they are done playing. In their view, all the people who wanted to leave have left. All the people who are in Ukraine are now legitimate targets.
Their first soldiers who were least prepared were there to simply wear out the Ukrainians but also they served another purpose: they made Russia look weaker than it is. This is a common tactic by Russians. I remember a Hockey game against the Czech Republic in 2002. Russia was down by 5 goals at halftime. Then in the second half, they got four goals in a matter of minutes. They didn’t manage to tie the game, their tactic didn’t work that time, but this is common: draw in the enemy, make them feel comfortable, and then attack with everything you have.
In the first war Chechnya it is believed that Russia lost 14,000 troops compared to 6,000 Chechen troops. To kill those 6,000 troops Russia was willing to lose three times the troops but also kill nearly 40,000 people. In the second Chechen war, Russia lost 7,000 troops to kill 16,000 Chechens and up to 250,000 civilians.
This war is Putin’s most important war. If he wins this war and brings Ukraine to its knees, he will have the glory of his supporters and army. If he loses, he will lose his invincibility status, furthermore, the economic crash will have been for nothing. Putin can’t lose this war and he has never lost one and he doesn’t plan to lose this one.
And so now we come to the fact that five days in, the attacks by Russians have not decreased, they have intensified. He has gotten Belarus into the conflict and has moved a massive amount of troops. He has changed the way he fights, instead of small amounts of shooting into civil areas to get people who are scared out, to full-on carpet bombing, shutting down electricity, it's a switch to total war.
On Day 4 the Ukrainians had swagger, they heard from Putin to negotiate and they saw the many Russian soldiers who gave up. On Day 5 there is a little bit of confusion as the bombing increased, as cities like Kherson and Mariupol, and Kharkiv became encircled and the bombing of Kyiv intensified.
Dear Ukrainians, the worst thing you can do in battle, is get cocky. You have to be focused, strategic and expect the fox to have tricks. With Putin nothing is what it seems, he is not normal, he is willing to lose and take life by the tens of thousands.
Expect things to get a lot worse. You have the support of the world. Use that. Fight. Expect to fight for a long time. Your hope is the Russian people. Only they can stop this madman. For that, you will have to treat them well and reach out to them. The rest of the world too..
If you’d like to help the effort or refugees, please follow this link. It has approved organizations that are active in Ukraine.
