Invest in Renewables, or Die
People often wonder if it is worth investing in renewables. Renewables have been doing well. ETF’s like TAN has been performing and outperforming the market and most other ETF’s. But a lot of people are still unsure because they wonder if this is a fad or a long term thing. So I offer a Pascalling take on this.
Blaise Pascal was a brilliant son of a brilliant father. He was still a young man, 23 years old, when he determined that if he believes in God, and God does not exist, nothing happens. However, if he does not believe in God and God exists, he goes to hell. So he figured it is statistically better to bet on God and go to heaven than bet no God and go to hell. So he quit science and dedicated his life to God.
We don’t know if God won, but we know humanity lost a great thinker and who knows where we would be as a society if he worked more on science than religion. However, we can use this way of thinking to look at investing in renewables or not. Because today, the fork in the road we face when it comes to climate change is similar to the religious fork Pascal faced. If in 20 years, we do not solve the environmental issues, we will all die. At the current pace of climate change, the likelihood of human civilization and our markets with that being what it is today or better is zero if we do not meet the challenge of climate change.
This means that to meet the challenge we have to have a complete transformation of the economy towards green and sustainable. This means that if we are alive in 20 years, it will be with an economy that is no longer fossil-based, that is completely renewable, that is a low carbon, low meat, and high efficiency.
Which companies will be the companies that are alive in 20 years? It is the companies that produce the new economy or those which are able to shift and adapt to the change in environment and economy. This nearly assures that any company that is not already in transition right now, will be extinct. That’s because, by the time they wake up and start to invest in renewables, they will be so far behind others that it will be too late to catch up.
So if you are looking to invest money today, it should be clear: if an economy is around in 20 years, it is because of the green revolution. If you invested green, your money is safe and has multiplied many times over. If you invested elsewhere, you will not see the profits from the rise in that economy because that economy will not exist.
However, if we do not meet this challenge, there will be no green economy as there will be no economy. And you will be just as likely to lose money in whatever industry you invest in.
So really the decision tree states that the only way to profit in the future is to invest in a green and sustainable economy. Invest in green, accelerate survival, ensure your future, and ensure your financial future. Invest in coal and oil, and ensure one thing: the collapse of your portfolio.