Yesterday, NATO gave Ukraine another “maybe” to entry into the alliance. For 20 years Ukraine has been given two opposite signals from the West. It has been asked to move away from Russia, to be part of Europe, but also refused entry into Europe. The excuses have always been the same: corruption, territory issues, others have to be happy with it. All of the consideration that disappear for other nations: Romania is no less corrupt, Hungary is an autocracy, Turkey is an autocracy and has land disputes. Sweden was blocked by Turkey but NATO found a way to get Turkey to sign on. There is only one country that NATO refuses to allow in and can only offer security assurances that it is not willing to provide: Ukraine.
Why? Fear. NATO was formed out of fear. Countries of NATO hope against hope that they will never have to face Russian soldiers. The more conflicts they see with Russia the more they want to do anything possible to avoid that war. Their actions tell Russia that in a case of conflict, they will lose. The issues uncovered in NATO through the past 18 months made clear deep problems in logistics, lack of spending the lack of weapons and lack of soldiers. This war showed Russia that if Russia were to attack with their current equipped army, there would be no one in the expensive tech rich NATO to stop them. It also became clear to Putin that the argument that one cannot fight Russia to risk nuclear war when it comes to Ukraine, would most likely also apply to Russia attacking Lithuania, Estonia, Poland and all other countries.
So what is stopping Russia from going after those states? Ukraine. Ukraine is the one country that is not scared to stand up to Russia. It is also the country and the people that Russia has historically used to prevent conquest and to use for conquest.
European countries are run by scared men and women who have not read history and do not understand what happens when Russia gains Ukraine. Whether it was after Cossack Rebellion or after the Bolshevik War, it was the act of winning Ukraine, its land, resources and people that allowed Russia to expand East all the way to California during the 1700’s as well as West during 1930ies and 1950ies.
We see how Russia throws people into war to die brazenly, but not as brazenly as it throws Ukrainians. The amount of people drafted in the annexed Ukrainian territories who were thrown into the conflict dwarfs the amount of people recruited in Russia. The areas of Ukraine under Russian control are virtually depopulated of men as it threw them as meat to catch Ukranian bullets which showed Ukranian positions so that Russian troops would have an easier time fighting Ukraine. The strategy is not new as the same stories were told to my father by his father of Ukrainians thrown at German positions during WW2, butchered en masse, because they are but just “Ukrainian hohols”.
Russia is a deeply racist and deeply imperialist nation. It is little wonder that given American past that America wouldn’t treat Ukraine any different. Biden in his fear to “provoke” Putin gives Putin what Putin wants, and so following the path of Obama and Chamberlain, he is laying the ground for WW3.
NATO doesn’t seem to grasp that allowing Ukraine into NATO would prevent Ukraine from ever being able to expand Westard. It is the reason they have been fighting so hard to prevent Ukraine from becoming NATO. Ukraine in NATO would prevent Russia from having the lands as buffer and using Ukrainian people for the war effort. On the other hand having Ukraine in NATO means NATO would have arguably the best and largest army in Europe.
Delaying and not allowing Ukraine into NATO sends a signal to Putin that as long as he fights Ukraine, there is a chance for him to win Ukraine and then once he has Ukraine, to attack NATO countries. He knows that with Ukraine, and threat of a nuclear war, means NATO will not stop him in Baltics or Central Europe. Article 5 will not be enacted because cowards always find a reason to be cowards.
The answer of NATO to Ukraine should be read by Zelensky loud and clear: we will give/sell you weapons, but we will not fight for you, you are on your own. But the choice for Ukraine as a result of NATO cowardice is not join Russia, it is instead to follow the path of Israel: when surrounded by a large and ruthless enemy and weak allies, make yourself so strong, that no one would dare attack you.
It’s time for Ukraine to grasp the reality of the nature of their neighbors, and do what it must for its security. That is its only hope, as it is for the people of Central Europe and the world. The fact is, this fear of a third World War that keeps Ukraine out from NATO, is the very thing that would cause it, should Ukraine fall.